Badger Predation on Lapwing Nests Is Rare – But Cold Snaps Can Tip the Balance
Badgers are often blamed when wader nests fail on British farmland, but new evidence suggests their role may be far smaller than assumed
Predators in perspective
Badgers are often blamed when wader nests fail on British farmland, but new evidence suggests their role may be far smaller than assumed. A six-year study at the Game and Wildlife Scottish Demonstration Farm in Aberdeenshire, published in the Journal of Avian Biology, shows that Eurasian Badgers (Meles meles) took only 23 Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) clutches out of 372 monitored – barely six per cent of all nests. Most years saw little or no loss to badgers at all.
When the weather turns, patterns change
Although badger predation was rare overall, the study led by Bryony Tolhurst and colleagues found a striking temperature link. Of the 23 clutches taken over six years, 21 were lost during a single cold spring in 2021, when mean daily temperatures dropped below 4°C and Lapwing productivity slumped to just 0.5 fledged chicks per pair. The researchers found that the probability of badger predation exceeded 10% on days below 4°C, but was close to zero once temperatures rose above 10°C.
Earthworms and cold ground
The team believe the pattern reflects changes in the badger’s main food source. When the ground cools, earthworms burrow deep and become inaccessible, prompting badgers to forage more widely – including across Lapwing nesting areas. “The evidence suggests that badgers only pose a real risk to Lapwings when earthworms are unavailable due to cold weather,” says Tolhurst. “In normal springs, their impact is minimal.”
Not the villains of the piece
By excluding foxes from the study site through targeted control, the researchers could assess badgers in isolation. Their conclusion: even where badgers are present, they are seldom a major cause of nest failure. Predation was concentrated in one year of extreme conditions rather than spread evenly across the study. In most years, badgers took few or no Lapwing eggs at all.
Cold stress compounds the problem
Cold weather harms Lapwings directly as well as indirectly. Adults must leave nests more often to feed when invertebrates are scarce, exposing eggs to chilling and opportunistic predation. “The combination of low temperature, reduced food for both species, and decreased nest attendance likely explains why 2021 was such a bad year,” the authors note. Once temperatures recovered in later seasons, predation levels – and chick output – rebounded.
Management lessons
The findings suggest that short-term, targeted measures – such as temporary electric fencing or supplementary food for badgers – might help during exceptional cold spells, rather than blanket predator control. “There’s no evidence that badgers are consistently harming Lapwing populations,” Tolhurst emphasises. “The main driver of loss is weather, not badgers.”
Climate change and context
As spring weather becomes more erratic with climate change, the interplay between temperature, prey availability and predator foraging could become increasingly important. Yet this study offers reassurance: under normal conditions, Lapwings and badgers coexist with little conflict. Only when frost lingers do the boundaries blur.
October 2025
Read the full paper here
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