Scotland's seabirds fall to half 1980s levels
NatureScot's latest seabird indicator reveals widespread long-term declines, with Arctic Skua numbers down 93%, Little Tern 75% and Common Tern 73% since monitoring began in 1986.
Scotland's breeding seabirds are continuing to decline, with average numbers now around half the level recorded when systematic monitoring began in the 1980s, according to new figures from NatureScot.
The latest Scottish Biodiversity Indicator for breeding seabirds brings together data from the UK Seabird Monitoring Programme between 1986 and 2024. It includes information for 19 of the 24 seabird species breeding in Scotland, with abundance trends available for 14 species and breeding-success estimates for 16.
Of the 14 species assessed for abundance over the full period, 13 have declined. Eight of those falls are statistically significant and no species has recorded a significant long-term increase.
Arctic Skua has suffered by far the steepest decline, with abundance down 93% since 1986. Little Tern has fallen by 75%, Common Tern by 73% and Shag by 70%. Great Black-backed Gull is down 59%, Herring Gull 54%, Kittiwake 53% and Fulmar 36%, all statistically significant declines.
Razorbill is the only species in the abundance indicator showing a higher 2024 index than in 1986, at 63% above the baseline, although NatureScot says this does not amount to a statistically significant long-term increase. Over the shorter period from 2015 to 2024, Kittiwake, Razorbill and Herring Gull were among five species showing increases, while eight declined.
Breeding performance paints a similarly concerning picture. Overall seabird productivity has declined since 1986, and eight of the 15 species for which breeding success was measured in 2024 produced fewer chicks than their 2022-24 average. Arctic Skua productivity in 2024 was just 0.03 chicks per pair, compared with a three-year average of 0.43, while Arctic Tern produced 0.10 chicks per pair and Common Tern 0.26.
There were some more encouraging results. Guillemot and Puffin breeding success remained close to their recent averages, while Gannet and Great Black-backed Gull both performed above their 2022-24 averages in 2024. NatureScot notes, however, that year-to-year breeding success can change quickly in response to food availability, weather and predation.
But many of our seabirds are under threat. Climate change, food shortages, invasive species and other human pressures are contributing to their decline.
Bex Outram, NatureScot Marine Ornithologist
Scotland holds more than 60% of the UK's seabird population, with around five million seabirds of 24 species breeding there. Its colonies are also globally important, supporting about 60% of the world's breeding Great Skuas, 46% of Northern Gannets and 16% of Manx Shearwaters.
NatureScot identifies reduced prey availability, invasive non-native species and climate change as major drivers of decline. Sandeel availability is particularly important for several species, while extreme weather can reduce feeding opportunities and breeding success. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza has added another major pressure since 2021, with the report noting more than 100,000 reported bird carcasses, mostly waterbirds and seabirds, between October 2021 and September 2023.
The 2024 indicator was drawn from a representative sample of colonies around Scotland. A total of 222 colonies contributed to abundance counts and 36 colonies to breeding-success monitoring.
Conservation work is being taken forward through the Scottish Seabird Conservation Action Plan, published in 2025. Its priorities include protecting food supplies, restoring and improving breeding habitats and increasing seabird survival and resilience. NatureScot says long-term monitoring will remain essential for measuring whether those measures are succeeding and for understanding how pressures on seabirds continue to change.
14 Aug 2026
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