Climate Change Threatens Ethiopia's Highland Icon
New research warns that the endemic Moorland Francolin could lose nearly all of its habitat by the end of the century as rising temperatures reshape Afroalpine ecosystems.
Mountaintop Endemics Under Pressure
The Ethiopian highlands, known for their rich biodiversity and high levels of endemism, face mounting threats from climate change. A recent study has used advanced species distribution modelling to assess how the Moorland Francolin (Scleroptila psilolaema), a ground-dwelling bird confined to Afroalpine habitats, will respond to future warming. The results suggest a dramatic contraction of its current 6,861 km² range to just 389 km² under mid-range climate scenarios between 2041 and 2060 - with no suitable habitat remaining under extreme warming scenarios.
Temperature emerged as the primary determinant of the species’ range, particularly annual mean temperature, with diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality playing secondary roles. Given the species’ low dispersal ability and reliance on open moorland habitats, rising temperatures and vegetation shifts could push it to the brink of extinction.
A Landscape of ‘Sky Islands’
The Ethiopian highlands form an archipelago of isolated mountain blocks above 3,000 m, often referred to as “sky islands.” These habitats are naturally fragmented and are further threatened by agricultural expansion, road networks, and land-use changes. The Bale Mountains National Park currently supports the largest contiguous area of suitable habitat, but even here, warming trends and the upslope expansion of Ericaceous vegetation threaten the moorland species.
The study identified a few additional potential habitats in the Choke Mountains, Guna Mountain, and Simien Mountains National Park, but field surveys and historical data show that the species is absent from these areas, raising concerns about overprediction in model outputs. Nonetheless, the modelling highlights the urgent need to safeguard remaining habitat fragments across both the western and eastern highlands.
Climate Modelling and IUCN Status
Researchers employed an ensemble of six modelling algorithms, all of which demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.9). By combining results, the team achieved robust forecasts of current and future habitat suitability. Alarmingly, under high-emission scenarios (SSP 370 and SSP 585), suitable habitat for the Moorland Francolin is projected to vanish entirely by 2080.
Using IUCN Red List criteria, the species’ area of occupancy (AOO) was calculated at just 912 km², qualifying it as “Vulnerable.” The authors argue that climate-induced range loss, combined with human pressures, could accelerate its decline unless targeted conservation measures are implemented.
Conservation Priorities
The authors call for immediate, species-specific conservation actions. These include habitat management, the creation of nature reserves, and improving connectivity between isolated highland sites. Given the bird’s restricted range and sensitivity to warming, strategies that address both local land-use impacts and broader climate resilience will be essential.
The Moorland Francolin’s plight is emblematic of the challenges faced by other Afroalpine specialists, including the Ethiopian Siskin (Serinus nigriceps) and Spot-breasted Lapwing (Vanellus melanocephalus). With climate change reshaping Africa’s alpine zones, proactive conservation will be critical to prevent a wave of mountaintop extinctions.
Looking Ahead
The study underscores that the Ethiopian highlands are among the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate disruption in Africa. Protecting these habitats is not only vital for endemic birds but also for the broader ecological and cultural heritage they support.
Future research, the authors suggest, should focus on occupancy modelling and monitoring habitat dynamics to inform adaptive management. The findings serve as a stark reminder that without concerted conservation action, some of Ethiopia’s most iconic birds may be lost within decades.
July 2025
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