Ancient seabird droppings reveal uncertain future for Antarctica's wildlife
Long-term evidence shows seabird populations have repeatedly declined during warmer periods
Ancient deposits of seabird guano are providing new insight into how Antarctica’s wildlife has responded to climate change over thousands of years - and the findings suggest an uncertain future.
By analysing preserved droppings from multiple seabird colonies, researchers have been able to reconstruct long-term population trends across different species. The results show clear cycles of growth and decline, closely linked to shifts in climate.
Periods of warming were consistently associated with reductions in seabird numbers, while cooler phases appeared to support population recovery. The changes are thought to be driven largely by variations in sea ice, which plays a key role in shaping feeding conditions in the Southern Ocean.
Seabirds depend on productive marine ecosystems, and even small changes in sea ice can affect the availability of prey. When conditions become less favourable, breeding success and survival can decline, leading to population drops.
The study draws on layers of guano built up over centuries and millennia, with each layer preserving chemical signals that reflect past colony size and environmental conditions. This allows researchers to track how seabird communities have responded to natural climate variability over long timescales.
The findings are particularly relevant as Antarctica undergoes rapid environmental change. In several regions, sea ice is declining and ocean conditions are shifting, raising concerns about how seabird populations will respond.
While past populations have shown an ability to recover when conditions improved, the current rate of warming is much faster than many previous changes. This could make it more difficult for seabirds to adapt.
The research highlights the importance of long-term records in understanding how ecosystems respond to environmental change. By looking beyond short-term trends, scientists can better assess the risks facing wildlife today.
For Antarctic seabirds, the evidence suggests that climate-driven changes to sea ice and marine ecosystems have shaped their fortunes in the past - and are likely to continue doing so in the years ahead.
May 2026
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